Time Lags Throw Shade on Climate Models
Earth's Temperature Dances to Its Own Tune, Not CO2's
Imagine sunlight bathing a beach. The sand warms quickly, but the ocean remains cool for a while. This time delay, or phase shift, between peak sunlight and peak temperature, reveals a crucial aspect of Earth's climate often ignored: time dependence. This article rediscovers Joseph Fourier's pioneering work on this neglected concept and its implications for understanding, and critically, challenging current climate science.
The core argument revolves around Earth's non-equilibrium thermal response to solar energy. Unlike a simple equilibrium model where temperature instantaneously balances energy flow, our planet responds gradually, with oceans and land exhibiting distinct time delays in their temperature changes. Fourier identified this phenomenon back in 1824, but it was largely forgotten after scientists, starting with Pouillet in 1836, embraced an equilibrium "climate" for mathematical convenience.
This oversimplification led to the misguided notion of radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. These concepts assume exact balances between incoming solar heat and outgoing infrared radiation, supposedly perturbed by greenhouse gases like CO2. However, the Earth's inherent time dependence invalidates such assumptions.
Here's why:
Oceans: Over the oceans, wind speed governs both the temperature rise and delay. Evaporation, driven by wind, is the primary cooling mechanism, and its variability creates a diurnal phase shift where peak temperature lags behind peak sunlight. Additionally, a significant seasonal phase shift of up to 8 weeks exists, highlighting the ocean's thermal inertia. This means heat imbalances (e.g., from CO2) are simply stored as changes in ocean heat content, not reflected in immediate temperature increases.
Land: Over land, moist convection swiftly removes absorbed solar heat during the day, dissipating almost all the energy within the same 24-hour cycle. The surface temperature "resets" daily as the air temperature changes. This explains the observed coupling between land and ocean temperature phase shifts, as weather systems move from sea to land.
Fourier further argued that the global mean temperature record is dominated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a natural ocean cycle unrelated to CO2. Urban heat island effects and data adjustments also contribute to warming trends, masking any potential "CO2 signal."
The crux of the critique lies in exposing the falsity of "climate sensitivity" to CO2. Since Earth's temperature already exhibits substantial time dependence because of inherent processes, slight changes in infrared radiation from greenhouse gases cannot produce measurable temperature increases. The authors dismiss notions of "water vapor feedback" and "radiative forcing" as mathematical artifacts arising from the flawed equilibrium assumption.
Fourier’s research challenges the very foundation of current climate models, which rely heavily on equilibrium-based calculations. If Fourier's argument holds, it could significantly affect our understanding of climate change and the role of greenhouse gases. Yet, these claims face intense scrutiny and debate within the scientific community.
Key Take-Aways of the Fourier’s research:
Earth's temperature exhibits significant time dependence, with oceans and land responding to solar energy with phase shifts.
The equilibrium "climate" assumption used in many climate models is an oversimplification that ignores this crucial aspect.
Fourier argues Earth's inherent time dependence invalidates that "climate sensitivity" to CO2 and concepts like "radiative forcing".
The global mean temperature record is influenced by various factors, masking any potential "CO2 signal."
This article delves into the core arguments of Fourier’s research. However, it is important to note that the topic is complex and highly contested. Reading the original research and exploring other perspectives is crucial for forming an informed opinion on this important scientific debate.