Kamala Harris's Campaign Surge: Real Momentum or Media Mirage?
Harris enjoys honeymoon phase, but challenges loom in key battleground states.
As soon as Biden left the campaign trail, the media immediately began signing Kamala Harris's high praises nearly nonstop. Harris is enjoying a honeymoon phase in the campaign now, with her VP pick — far-left Minnesota governor Tim Walz. The latest Nate Silver's Silver Bullet model updates have certainly added fuel. The model, which generates polling hedges in Electoral College and popular vote estimates, now has Harris at less than 50% to win the all-important Electoral College. In contrast, Kennedy has just a 5.2% chance of winning the popular vote. And, of course, we will see in the next couple of weeks as people’s interest in politics increases (Florida Primary: August 20th) how things ultimately shake out.
These models give insight into big-picture shifts in public opinion, and should not be read as predictions of electoral results — but from what we observe at the precinct level by regional area it seems this is indeed shaping up to potentially have an impact on some key battleground states—in which Nate Silver’s model reveals margins within under a percentage point across several areas—suggesting that small changes in voter sentiment between now & Election Day could swing these elections with far-reaching implications for our country. Polls typically do not seek opinions on third-party candidates like Kennedy and Libertarian Party presidential nominee Chuck Oliver. On Monday it will be less than 100 days away, and the campaign strategies of all concerned presidential candidates (including Trump) are going to have so many fewer opportunities. The task facing Harris is to build on her momentum and simultaneously answer worries among some voters about the sincerity of her evolving views, as well as whether she has a firm hold on serious issues that touch American families. She has got to sharpen her positions on major policies and say them convincingly.
We shall have more information to follow, provided Harris speaks candidly about issues that matter to Americans. The left has been ecstatic since Biden dropped out and Harris rose to what currently looks like the presumptive nomination, as they nearly all viewed him as weak. The mainstream media has rolled the dice for Harris, thus making her surge in the polls. But I suspect that this honeymoon period may not last, as mentioned in my post on July 31st. Harris has yet to encounter any challenging questions or unscripted appearances, and her policy positions have changed dramatically over time so — like Trump a few years back — it is difficult for anyone to know what she truly stands for. Harris has flip-flopped on many issues, ranging from single-payer healthcare for illegal immigrants to border control and law enforcement funding, causing voters as well as the media to wonder if Harris has any real principles or if is she just another political opportunist. The chickens will eventually come home to roost. With the election just around the corner, Harris will have to confront these issues and lay out her persuasive vision if she wants to keep taking the lead. Her campaign website is absent a platform or issues page that demonstrates where she stands officially.
The same can be said for the 2024 election season more broadly, due in part to JD Vance's run and his ideas getting too much media. The media's obsessive coverage of the six-week abortion bill and other controversial subjects only further polarizing voters. Indeed, the media itself often systematically propagates heavy bias on things that don’t matter in the overall scheme of things forcing human perception and in turn, determining voters’ positions.
The mainstream media revealed coordinated messaging when every media group used the same defamatory term to depict Vance by describing him as “weird” yet not questioning Walz’s signing of a bill putting tampons in high school boys’ bathrooms as being “weird”. And yet, despite a coordinated, slanted media environment, Trump has been surprisingly quiet and can perform even in adverse conditions through his willingness to go around opposing media outlets like ABC, when engaging with voters. The fact that he has no problem taking hard questions from the press and braving unscripted encounters might play well with voters who crave leadership strength & authenticity. Authenticity is perhaps the greatest power in politics, and its importance cannot be overstated. Authenticity is what Harris lacks, sadly.
