Brightline's Slow-Motion Wreck: Why This "Private" Rail Dream Is Headed for Bankruptcy
After costing taxpayers billions, Brightline is now deferring a massive debt payment. I predicted this financial doom—and bankruptcy is next.
It looks like my public prediction in 2023 for Brightline’s future is on track, though I privately predicted its failure when it came running to taxpayers to help prop them up years earlier. With low ridership and an inability to meet their financial projections, they continue to push debt payments to its impending doom. The “murder train,” as South Florida residents commonly call it, is not a "private" enterprise as it is often touted—the operation costs taxpayers billions in lost revenue, letting Brightline borrow on the cheap. At the same time, we, the taxpayers, are footing the bill for building up their infrastructure. Now we learn, they're deferring tomorrow's July 15 interest payment on $1.2 billion of muni bonds, signaling desperation.
First off, the numbers don't lie. Brightline doubled ridership in 2024, hitting about 2.7 million passengers, but that's a far cry from Fortress Investment Group’s prospectus hype of 5.5-7 million. Fares averaged 19% below forecasts, revenue grew, and losses exploded to $549 million—blame $218 million in refinancing hits and sky-high interest on $4.6 billion debt via Bloomberg. By Q1 2025, operating losses lingered at $60 million, liquidity dipped to $310 million, and ridership growth stalled at 11-13% YoY, not enough to cover the burn.
Worse, it's all propped up by government crutches. Those tax-exempt private activity bonds? They're not "private"—they cost taxpayers billions in lost revenue, letting Brightline borrow cheap while we foot the bill. Now, they're deferring tomorrow's July 15 interest payment on $1.2 billion of muni bonds, signaling desperation. Fitch and S&P downgraded to junk (BB+ to CCC+). They're begging for another $400 million in taxpayer-backed bonds for their Tampa expansion, but with expenses outpacing revenue, it's lipstick on a pig. Even billionaire Richard Branson pulled out of the project when he wanted to rebrand it Virgin Trains, for like 5 minutes, winning a lawsuit against Brightline.
As a free marketer, this is offensive. We’ve had an endless parade of government officials tout Brightline since before the first track was laid, telling the public that this will be a great example of a privately funded passenger rail line that will succeed in America. But, almost immediately, billions of government-backed bonds were pushed through, and taxpayer-funded train stations were erected in cities it was never planned to stop at, most recently Tampa and Cocoa, Florida (though last year the federal government rejected Cocoa’s request for $47 to build a station for Brightline).
In my world, ventures like this should thrive on voluntary private investment or "die on the vine." Brightline's not meeting projections because Floridians prefer flexible options, without schedules or crowds. Subsidies distort the market, crowding out innovators with flexible autonomous shuttles and private vehicles that fit our active, changing lifestyles. Trains are not flexible, whereas private cars and rideshares like Lyft and Uber are far more flexible for moving people from Point A to Point B.
I’m calling it: Bankruptcy looms by the end of 2026. Liquidity is evaporating, and the deferral of bond payments is a clear sign of distress. Without further taxpayer-funded bailouts, the only options are to restructure or default. Good riddance—failure breeds better ideas. Let's demand Congress axe these bond perks and unleash real competition.